I Just Watched a Smart Founder Make a $200K Mistake

Last week I talked to a founder who failed in San Francisco.

Smart guy. Technical. Built a product. A bigger company copied it, crushed him, he's out.

Now he's starting over with a new idea: AI agents for brick-and-mortar stores. SaaS model. $29-$49/month. He's excited. He's motivated. He's ready to build.

I didn't tell him what I'm about to tell you.

Not because he's not smart. Because he's building something I could replicate in 1-2 days.

And if I can copy it in 48 hours, so can 10,000 other developers. So can AI itself.

There's no moat. His entire business will depend on OpenAI not changing their pricing. On Claude not releasing a competing product. On nobody else having the same weekend I had.

That's not a business. That's a timer waiting to go off.

Here's what nobody's saying out loud:

In 2019, a smart founder with a decent SaaS idea had maybe 50/50 odds of building something that worked.

Today? I'd give him 10%.

Not because the market's harder (though it is). Not because there's more competition (though there is).

The things that used to create moats don't work anymore:

Meanwhile, laid-off tech workers are thinking: "At least I'm not trying to start a company. I'll just find another job."

Bad news:

You're applying to fake jobs, competing with 1.7 million people who've been searching for 6+ months, hoping a resume will save you.

The founder building the AI tool and the tech refugee applying to jobs are making the same mistake:

They're playing a game that doesn't exist anymore.

I spent $300K building a quant trading company ‘the right way.’

Hired engineers. Built sophisticated algorithms. Ran backtests. Did everything the startup books tell you to do.

The returns? Terrible. Couldn't beat a basic index fund.

Meanwhile, some Reddit guys called Bogleheads just bought 8-10 ETFs and left them alone. They made 10%+ with zero effort.

That's when I realized:

Most startup advice assumes you're in San Francisco with VCs ready to write checks. It assumes you can burn money for 2-3 years while you ‘build and hope.’

Most career advice assumes the job market works like it did in 2019. It assumes credentials and resumes matter. It assumes companies are actually hiring.

Both assumptions are dead.

After my expensive mistake, I found something that actually worked:

Instead of building products and hoping people would pay, I started with customers who were already paying for similar services.

I was selling software to contractors for $29/month. The math sucked. I needed 100+ customers just to make basic rent.

Then I talked to one customer. He mentioned he was paying $10,000/month to a marketing agency.

Ten thousand dollars. Per month.

Meanwhile, my tool was helping him close $50,000+ in additional sales every month.

He was paying them $10,000. He was paying me $29.

So I changed what I was selling. Same service. Same conversations. Same time investment.

But now instead of asking for $29, I was asking for $1,000/month.

Within 30 days, I had 10 clients. $10,000/month. Enough to actually pay myself.

That taught me something crucial:

The moat isn't the tool. The moat is YOU.

The founder I talked to wants to build "AI agents for brick-and-mortar stores."

Generic. Copyable. Doomed.

But what if he built something different?

What if he built: "AI agents using his specific methodology from 5 years running a retail chain + his unique principles about customer service + his controversial belief that most retail AI solves the wrong problem"

Now I can't copy that in 48 hours. Nobody can.

Because it's inseparable from HIM.

Here's what actually creates moats in the post-AI world:

Stop building generic tools. Start building things only YOU can build.

Your experience. Your principles. Your worldview. Your taste. Your network. Your reputation.

The tool is commoditized. The person is not.

If you have specific knowledge, specific experience, specific beliefs about how things should work - that's your moat.

AI can't replicate that. Competitors can't copy that. It compounds forever.

I'm spending more time on distribution than product right now.

Not because I love marketing. Because distribution is the highest ROI activity in 2025.

If the founder I talked to had 30K followers who trusted him, the AI agent tool wouldn't matter. He could sell them anything.

If you're a tech refugee with a strong LinkedIn presence and email list, you're not competing with 294 applicants. You're getting DMs from people who want to hire you.

Build distribution first. Everything else is secondary.

The founder depends on APIs staying stable. On customers paying low margins. On nobody copying him.

The tech refugee depends on the job market improving. On companies actually hiring. On landing somewhere that won't lay them off again.

Both are betting on things they don't control.

Here's what you CAN control:

Start a consulting business. Build equity in something you own. Create assets that compound.

It doesn't have to be complicated. It doesn't require capital.

‘I can't start a business. It takes money!’

False.

The only cost is your time.

Right now you're spending time on:

What if you spent that same time on:

Here's what happened when I did this with SimpleDirect:

Instead of selling software for $29/month, I offered consulting for $1,000/month.

Same calls. Same time. Same problems solved.

Within 90 days: $45,000 in revenue. From a ‘software company’ that was making $1,000/month.

Worst case: You make some money. You prove you can do this. You have options.

Best case: You stop job hunting because you don't need a job.

There's no excuse. Not capital. Not time. Not experience.

You have the skills. You have the network. You have severance as runway.

Start the consulting business. Then apply for jobs if you want.

Don't make "employee" your only identity. What happens when you get laid off again?

(I wrote a free book about exactly this: The Anti-Unicorn: The Consulting Model. It's the complete guide to running a consulting business instead of building SaaS or chasing jobs. 30,000+ words, no fluff.)

Quick exercise:

For founders: Look at what you're building. Could someone copy it in 48 hours?

If yes, you don't have a moat.

The moat needs to be YOU - your specific knowledge, your distribution, your network.

For tech refugees: Open a Google Doc. Write down:

Then reach out to one of them. This week.

Don't wait for the perfect moment. Don't wait for permission. Don't wait for the job market to "get better."

It won't.

63% of laid-off tech workers started their own business. 25% did it within 3 months.

They're not crazy. They just did the math faster.

For founders:

For tech refugees:

The pattern is the same for both:

Build something tied to YOU. Build distribution. Own the outcome.

That's it. That's the whole game now.

What I'm Doing

I'm not taking clients who want to build generic SaaS tools.

I work with:

I reject 70% of applicants. Not because I'm picky. Because most people aren't ready to admit the world changed.

If you are ready, we should talk.

— George

P.S. — The founder I talked to will probably build his AI SaaS tool. He'll spend 18 months on it. Someone will copy it in a weekend. He'll fail again.

Not because he's not smart. Because he's playing a game that ended two years ago.

Don't be him.