Lying in bed, scrolling Twitter. Friends panicking about layoffs. Founders I respect quietly shutting down. DMs asking "is it just me, or did everything get harder?"

It's not just you.

When I was in San Francisco last month, I felt something I'd only felt once before — growing up in China:

Let me explain what that means, because most people here have never experienced it.

In China, competition starts in elementary school. Your grades determine which middle school you get into. Not everyone gets the good ones.

So your friends — your classmates — are also your competitors.

Same thing with high school. University. Career.

Even dying is competitive. Good cemetery plots in major cities cost more than apartments.

When everything is zero-sum — when there's only so many slots, so many jobs, so many spots — why bother being nice? Why help a stranger when helping them might mean losing your own chance?

That's what happens when scarcity becomes the baseline. Community disappears. Trust evaporates. Everyone looks out for themselves because no one else will.

It was different here in the West. Even just a few years ago.

There was a sense of community. People helped each other. The social fabric held.

That's disappearing.

In SF, NYC, Toronto — I can feel it now. People are more guarded. More transactional. More ‘me vs them’.

The invisible infrastructure that made Western societies work — the trust, the generosity, the assumption that things will be okay — it's breaking.

Median US home price: $300k (2019) → $400k+ today. Up 30%.

But that's not the real story. Mortgage rates went from 3.9% to 6.7%.

Income needed to afford the median US home: $120,000.

Actual median household income: $84,000.

The gap has never been wider.

San Francisco median home: $1.09M. Required income: $303,000.

NYC rent: $3,500-$4,000+ for a one-bedroom. National rent up 19% since 2019.

Housing shortage: 4.5 million units. Building 1.3 million per year. Adding 1.8 million new households. The math doesn't work.

Job openings collapsed. 12 million → 7.5 million. Down 40%.

Average job search for laid-off tech workers: 6-12 months. Many sending 200-400+ applications per offer.

I've seen Reddit threads from senior engineers with 10+ years experience, still searching after 6 months. One guy wrote he's sent over 100 applications. Zero responses.

Cumulative inflation 2019-2024: 23-24%.

Groceries: up 20-25%.

Real wage growth? Flat. Your raises got eaten.

37% of Americans can't cover a $400 emergency.

42% have NO emergency fund.

Average credit card debt: $6,730-$10,563. At 22-24% APR.

Paying minimums on $10k of credit card debt? That's 22 years to pay off.

67% living paycheck to paycheck.

VC funding peak (2021): $350 billion. VC funding now: $209 billion. Down 40%.

Startups that shut down in 2024: 966. Up 26%.

Seed to Series A success rate: cut in half. Was 30%. Now 15%.

Bench raised $113M, shut down overnight, 600 people jobless before Christmas. Tally raised $172M. Dead. Rad Power Bikes raised $300M+. Dead.

I'm based in Toronto. I watched something happen here that Americans should pay attention to.

In 2023, Canada brought in 1.2 million people. That's 3% of our entire population. In one year.

The theory: grow the economy, fill labor shortages, boost GDP.

The reality: Housing exploded. Rents doubled in some cities. Six international students sharing a one-bedroom basement became normal. Entry-level wages collapsed from oversupply.

Then the government reversed course. Hard. International student permits slashed 83%. Some provinces went from welcoming immigrants to rejecting them overnight.

People who structured their entire lives around one set of rules woke up to completely different rules.

The same forces are at play in the US. H-1B registrations:

The people who got hurt weren't dumb. They just assumed tomorrow would look like today.

I'm not saying this to scare you. I'm saying it because pretending the world hasn't shifted is how people get blindsided.

I'm not just observing this. I got hit too.

Part of my business helped founders with international mobility — moving to UAE, Portugal, Canada, the US. Then the policies shifted. Fast.

We lost 70%+ of the revenue we would have made in 2026-2027. Gone. Overnight. Because of policy changes we couldn't predict or control.

We pivoted. Shifted focus to US customers. Converted savings to USD. Cut burn rate. Built 18+ months of runway. Went from 70% revenue concentration in a few clients to diversified across 15+.

Not because I'm smart. Because I watched what happens when policy shifts faster than people can adapt.

Your industry. Your job. Your business model. One policy change, one economic shift, and everything you planned for disappears.

I'm not predicting collapse. I'm not saying "the economy is doomed."

I'm saying: the margin for error has shrunk.

In 2019, you could make mistakes. Overpay for a house. Take the wrong job. Ignore your savings. The rising tide covered a lot of sins.

In 2025, the math is less forgiving:

The people who thrive aren't necessarily smarter. They're more resilient. They built margin into their lives.

Which brings us to the only part that actually matters.

How many months can you survive if income went to zero tomorrow?

Not your 401k. Liquid cash you can access.

Target: 6 months minimum. Resilient people keep 6-12 months.

The math: If you have $20,000 saved and burn $4,000/month, you have 5 months. That's not enough. Either build savings or cut burn.

Where the money goes:

Geographic arbitrage works:

SF → Austin = $23,000/year saved. Same remote job.

2 million people left major cities 2020-2022.

California lost 239,000 residents in 2023-2024 alone.

They're not stupid.

One income source = one point of failure.

Start something on the side while you're still employed. Don't wait for the layoff.

Paying minimums on $5,000 at 22% APR = 5 years to pay off.

Paying minimums on $10,500 (average balance) = 22 years to pay off.

This isn't an inconvenience. It's a financial emergency. Every month you carry a balance, you're paying 22% interest while your savings earn 4%.

What resilient people do:

Don't wait for the layoff notice to start looking. By then you're competing with everyone else who just got laid off too.

Trading time for money has a ceiling. You can only work so many hours.

The shift:

Equity. Investments. Businesses. Things that compound without you.

The people who own the next decade won't be the ones who worked the hardest. They'll be the ones who built things that kept working while they slept.

Take 30 minutes. Do this now.

Under 6 months? Emergency mode. Cut expenses this week.

Every time the anxiety creeps back, I remind myself:

In 10 years, the 2025-2027 chaos will be a distant memory. Economies will have adjusted. New normals will have formed.

And the people who positioned correctly RIGHT NOW will own the next decade.

Not the people who had the most money. Not the people with the best credentials.

The people who saw the shift, adjusted quickly, and survived the transition.

I can't control the economy. I can't control immigration policy. I can't control inflation.

But I can control my positioning.

And so can you.

Nobody is coming to save you.

Not your employer.

Not the Fed.

Not the politicians.

But that’s the good news — you don’t need them.

You just need to position correctly while everyone else is sleepwalking.

—George

P.S. — Know someone stressed about money, housing, or job security right now? Forward this to them.

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